Economic Outcomes of Refugee Repatriation in Afghanistan: A Quantitative Assessment of the Impact on Local Labor Markets, Poverty Rates, and Economic Growth

Sher Khan

Volume 8 Issue 1 | Jun 2025

DOI: 10.31841/KJEMS.2025.181

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Abstract

This study examines the economic implications of refugee repatriation to Afghanistan, with a focus on labour market dynamics, poverty rates, and economic growth. Using a cross-sectional design, the research evaluates data from 500 households across Kabul and Nangarhar provinces, with data adjusted to account for partial responses. Analytical techniques employed include descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression, conducted using SPSS together with additional software (Matplotlib, a Python plotting library). These methods assess employment statistics, income distribution, and changes in poverty levels alongside regional GDP growth in Nangarhar. However, returnees in Kabul face significant challenges in securing quality employment, often resorting to informal and low-paid occupations. Poverty levels remain high among returnees and local populations, showing minimal change post-repatriation. These results underscore the need for targeted interventions, such as skill development programs, infrastructure improvements, and robust policy frameworks, to maximise the economic benefits of repatriation.
Keywords: Afghanistan, Economic Growth, Employment, Kabul, Nangarhar, Refugee Repatriation, Labour Market, Poverty