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Determinants of Economic Growth in Afghanistan: A Time Series Approach

Mr. Matin Karimi, Mr. Shahzad Anwar and Mr. Usman Ali ‎

Volume 4 Issue 2 | Jun 2021

DOI: 10.31841/KJEMS.2021.5

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Abstract

This research reviewed the determinants of economic growth in Afghanistan ‎on the ‎basis of ‎endogenous and exogenous growth theories and empirical ‎studies. The main ‎objective of this ‎research was to address the impact of ‎domestic investment, export, ‎official development ‎assistance and import ‎‎(independent variables) on the economic ‎growth (dependent variable) in ‎‎Afghanistan. This study adopted a quantitative ‎method of Ordinary Least ‎Square regression and ‎Co-integration analysis to address ‎the impact and long-‎run association among variables. The ‎findings from OLS ‎regression depicted ‎that domestic investment, export, and imports are ‎significantly ‎correlated to ‎economic growth, while foreign aid/official development assistance are ‎‎‎insignificant. In addition to OLS regression, researcher also did Johansen Co-‎‎integration test to ‎determine the long-run association of variables. It was ‎found that ‎long run relationship exists ‎among the variables, which reaffirm ‎that domestic ‎investment and foreign aid are significant ‎variables in bringing ‎alteration in economic ‎growth. This means that the Afghan government ‎‎should emphasize on attraction of ‎domestic capital to boost investment and ‎achieve high ‎economic growth as ‎accordingly. ‎Keywords: Economic Growth, Foreign aid, Domestic Investment, Imports, Exports and ‎‎Afghanistan